Elon Musk says drones will replace fighter jets (Forbes). Big claim, right? I test drones for work and for fun. I also love airshows. So I’ve felt both things—the soft buzz of a quad and the chest-thump of a jet. Which wins? Let me explain what I’ve seen, what I’ve flown, and where I think this is going.
For an even deeper dive into Musk’s statement and how it’s playing out, check out this full breakdown on Air-Attack.
What I’ve Actually Flown (And Where They Shine)
I’ve flown a bunch:
- DJI Air 3 and Mavic 3 for photos and maps
- Skydio 2+ for follow shots in tight trees
- A 5-inch FPV quad with Betaflight, GoPro, and Crossfire
- A little sub-250g whoop in my living room
- A foam fixed-wing with ArduPilot on a calm fall morning
The Skydio 2+ still blows my mind. I rode a mountain trail and let it track me under low branches. It slid left, dipped, then found my line again. No crash. I can’t do that with my FPV quad unless I have perfect hands.
The Mavic 3 gives crazy clean video. I used it to map a soccer field for a school fundraiser. The grid flight looked boring, but the results were crisp.
My FPV rig is the opposite. Loud. Twitchy. But it turns on a dime and moves like a sparrow. I once strapped on a tiny water bottle to test payload and felt the weight right away. Short flight, hard landing, lesson learned.
So yes, drones are smart. They’re also fragile. Wind, cold, and bad antennas all matter. I’ve had a signal drop behind a steel-roof barn and watched my quad fail-safe down into wet grass. Not my proudest day.
What I’ve Seen From The Jet Side
I’m not a pilot. But I’ve stood 200 feet from an F-16 at an airshow. It climbed like it hated gravity. The sound hit my ribs. A drone can’t do that. Not now.
If you’re curious which fighters actually feel the most agile from inside the cockpit, there’s a great firsthand comparison over at Air-Attack.
I also watched a T-38 trainer do a fast pass while a hobby drone hovered near the crowd, far away and legal. That clash felt like the whole debate. Power vs. quiet brains.
Real-World Clues You Can’t Ignore
This part matters most. Look at the news.
- In Ukraine, tiny FPV quads, some built for $500, have knocked out vehicles, and frontline pilots are now exploring AI tools to gain every edge they can (Reuters).
- The Bayraktar TB2 did big work early in the war. Slow. Cheap. But hard to spot and easy to keep in the air.
- The US has flown the XQ-58 Valkyrie, a jet-like drone that can team up with crewed jets. Australia has the MQ-28 Ghost Bat. Folks call them “loyal wingmen.”
- MQ-9 Reapers loiter for hours. They watch. They wait. They don’t get bored.
If you want to track these shifts as they happen, I recommend scrolling through Air-Attack, a site that logs daily combat-aircraft and drone updates from around the world.
So yes, drones are already doing a ton. Not theory. Real missions.
Where Drones Win Big
Cost and risk. That’s the headline.
- Cost: An F-35 is many tens of millions. An “attritable” combat drone like the Valkyrie is a single-digit million. A cheap FPV? Under a grand, parts included.
- Risk: If a drone goes down, no pilot is lost. That changes tactics. You can try wild things.
- Endurance: Reapers can hang out for a long time. Jets burn gas like a bonfire.
- Swarms: Ten cheap drones can hunt, spot, jam, and confuse. One jet has limits. Many small things can swarm like bees.
And here’s a small but key thing: repairs. I crash my FPV. I swap an arm. I solder a new ESC. I’m back up in an hour. You don’t patch a jet that easy.
Where Jets Still Hold the Sky
Speed. Payload. Survivability.
A fighter slices air at Mach speeds. It carries heavy sensors and big weapons. It fights under jamming and in storms. It takes hits and still comes home.
Talk to any radio nerd and you’ll hear about EW. Electronic warfare. That’s jamming and spoofing. I’ve seen tiny hints of it as a hobby pilot. A simple signal mess made my drone drop. Now scale that. War zones are full of noise, tricks, and lies. Drones can be blinded. Links can be cut. GPS can drift.
Weather also matters. My Mavic 3 hates big winds. My FPV quad can handle some gusts, but not a gale. A jet has more margin.
Autonomy Is Good—Not Magic
I love DJI’s obstacle sensors. They’ve saved me from trees more than once. Skydio’s vision feels like a cheat code when I’m biking.
Still, that’s not air combat. Combat means split-second choices with dirty data. Fog, smoke, decoys, and jammed maps. “See and avoid” gets hard. Edge AI keeps getting better, but trust? That takes time. And lots of tests.
A Quick Story About Signal Pain
I once flew near a fairground with a bunch of pop-up radios. My video went snowy. Control felt gummy. Latency spiked. My thumbs got sweaty. I set it down fast.
Now imagine that, but at 600 knots, with missiles in the air, and someone trying to fry your link on purpose. That’s why crewed jets still make sense for now. They bring human judgment when it goes sideways.
For a candid look at what it really takes to meet fighter-pilot requirements, see this honest take.
So, Is Elon Right?
Kind of. But not the way most folks read it.
- Drones will replace a lot of missions. Surveillance, strikes on fixed sites, risky scouting, and swarm tactics—yes.
- Drones will fly with jets as teammates. A pilot becomes a quarterback. Wingmen are uncrewed. We’re already testing that.
- Fighters won’t vanish soon. The mix will shift. More drones, fewer crewed jets, smarter links.
If you want my gut call: he’s right in spirit, wrong on timing. We’re moving there, but not with a light switch.
What I Liked and Didn’t, From My Own Gear
- DJI Air 3/Mavic 3: Clean video, strong link, easy workflow. Weak in strong wind. Batteries feel heavy in a small pack.
- Skydio 2+: The best follow modes I’ve used under trees. Short flight time. Loud whine.
- 5” FPV quad: Pure thrill. Nuts agility. But it’s needy—props, solder, tune, repeat.
- Foam fixed-wing with ArduPilot: Graceful and cheap to fix. Needs space and calm air.
These little wins and fails shape how I see big drones too. The physics is the same. Power. Weight. Link. Weather.
What Would Change My Mind
- Reliable autonomy in bad weather and heavy jamming
- Cheap jet-speed drones that can pull high Gs and carry real payloads
- Hardened links that don’t fold when pushed
We’re seeing pieces of this. The CCA programs in the US. The Ghost Bat flights. Smarter chips at the edge. But it’s not all baked yet.
Safety Note, Because It Matters
If you’re flying hobby gear: check local rules, keep line of sight, and stay far from airports. I run RID on my newer drones and check a map app before I launch. A safe flight is a fun flight.
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My Verdict
I give Elon’s claim four stars for direction, two stars for timeline, net three and a half